Twists and Turns

The political winds continue to blow and swirl after the "debate" and it is interesting, if not a bit scary, to watch the assessments and fallout.

The discussion/argument (I hesitate to dignify it by calling it a debate) on Monday evening highlighted two very different approaches to leadership: the prepared versus the wing-it.

In my opinion, the more prepared person on the stage was the winner, although, one writer indicated that she didn't lose.

It was a terrible example of a debate. There was no debate. 

The fallout has been instructive.

Trump has blamed his microphone and also indicated that he won the debate based upon polls. It seems that he has a problem with reality. If he cannot understand when his bellicose approach fails, then I am truly afraid of how his apparent lack of preparedness will translate into poor and uninformed decision making as our nation's leader.

Clinton, in my estimation the winner, has actually begun focusing on plans and details and programs since her evening in the spotlight on the stage.

The problem with the "debate" was that it became all about one candidate and not about ensuring the future prosperity and security of the United States. 

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Enter Rain, Good-bye Drought

Into every life a little rain must fall.

Finally, anyway, we are getting some much needed rain. It has been dry.

Too dry.

The amount of rain that we have received has been somewhat steady and beginning to add up. We received over 2 inches in the past 24 hours.

I remember earlier in the year when it seemed that the rain would never quit. And now, I am rejoicing at the raindrops falling form the sky.

I guess that it is a matter of perspective. I want the rain to end too, however, because I have a golf outing planned and I don't want the course too wet.

Look at me--thinking that just because I have an outdoors activity planned that the rain might hold off for a few hours.  

I wondered how many raindrops it would take to fill an 8 oz glass with water? I found a website, Bedtime Math,  that gave me an answer, although it must be stated that raindrops are not all the same size. The answer was about 7,200. Which, by the  way, would take hours. 

And so the rain continues pounding on my roof. It is going to be a long, slow drive to work today.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Wednesday Orioles Update

It is Wednesday, and five MLB regular season games remain for the Orioles. Based upon their lackluster performance last evening, they are continuing their September slide which likely will find them outside the post-season looking in at the players.

Currently, the Orioles hold a 1 game grasp on the second Wildcard spot in the American League, but they are 4-6 in their last 10 games which include being swept in a four-game series by the Red Sox and barely managing to split a four-game series against the bottom-dwelling Rays. The Orioles have scored three runs or less in 9 of their last 10 games! There is no offense. The pitching has allowed 5 runs (exactly) in 6 of their last 10 games. 

Although the sweep of the Diamondbacks to complete the home portion of the season raised their post-season projected chances form 44 percent to 73 percent--the next five games are against the Blue Jays (2) and Yankees (3). Scoring 2 runs per game against these teams is not going to get them into the post season. And then, even if they do manage a Wild Card spot, their game would be in Toronto (in all likelihood) against the Blue Jays. Not a recipe for success. 

The Blue Jays close their season against the Red Sox and Detroit, who are chasing the Orioles, are playing the cellar-dwelling National League Braves. 

It is crunch time! 

Go O's!

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

My Take: The First Presidential Debate

How many times did I hear "It was the worst thing ever?" And it was. I also heard "surreal" used in the post debate discussions.

I heard Trump flip-flop on the tax return situation? He went from  "No" to "If she does, I will."

There were a lot of statements made during the debate. Many false, some true based upon the political fact checking site Politifact. The New York Times also published an article this morning fact checking the debate. 

I felt that Lester Holt had great questions, but it was clear that at least one of the candidates never took a debating class in school. He was thuggish and talked over top of the others when they were speaking, while there are some who appreciate that approach, it is not conducive to addressing the issues.

In my estimation Trump generally overstated facts or just made statement that had no basis in fact, like the following statement he made about Hillary and ISIS, from the New York Times:

On Mr. Trump saying Mrs. Clinton had been “fighting ISIS your entire adult life.” 

In reality, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, began as an Al Qaeda affiliate that sprang up in Iraq as the Sunni insurgency amid the power vacuum created by the American invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein’s government in 2003. It was largely defeated and pushed into Syria during the Obama administration’s first term, when Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state. It eventually split from the original Al Qaeda and rebranded itself as ISIS, sweeping back into Iraq in 2014, when she was out of office.

—Charlie Savage

I was looking for four things during the debate: leadership, integrity, context and details. Here are my grades for the candidates based upon what I heard:

                                      Trump            Clinton

Leadership        -                 +

Integrity         -                 +                   

Context           -                 -

Details           -                 -

In terms winner or loser? Neither candidate clearly won, but Trump was the bigger loser. His grasp of context and basic facts highlighted his lack of preparation and his "I'll just wing it" approach to something as important as the debate. He apparently believes that debates are a performance and not something materially important to the process of selecting a President.

One statement which clearly demonstrates his failure to grasp context was the statement about the $14 million loan he received form his father to start his business. The New York Times fact checker details it as follows:

On Mr. Trump’s loan from his father.

Mrs. Clinton said it was $14 million in loans from Mr. Trump’s father that helped him get his real estate business off the ground. Mr. Trump said it was just a “small” loan. A recent Wall Street Journal article notes a series of loans and gifts that Mr. Trump received from his father, citing a casino disclosure document from 1985 showing that Mr. Trump owed his father and his father’s company about $14 million.

—Steve Eder

Seriously, someone who can call a $14 million loan small lacks context. 

Trump also said, in the Spin Room, after the debate: "I'm smart for paying no taxes." So a man who would be President believes he is smart for failing to pay taxes? 

Who won and who lost? 

My Take: Chuck Todd, the moderator of Meet the Press, said it best--there was a big loser tonight and it was the American people.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Monday Musings - September 26, 2016

Makayla in Glasses

1. The first 2016 Presidential Debate is tonight--watch it. It is important. I read that one of the candidates is not preparing for the questions.

2. The Orioles swept a series against the Diamondbacks this weekend. They were also eliminated from the division race and can only make the post-season via the Wild Card route.

3. Makayla, my Keeshond  was trying to imitate my look in glasses yesterday. It worked pretty well. 

18th Green
Walden Golf Club
Crofton, MD

4. I need to say thank you to my family for the great birthday celebration. Of course, it was made a bit better because the Baltimore birds (the Orioles and the Ravens) both won their games.

5. Early morning golf yesterday. It was very cool! I had to wear a light jacket. Another sign that autumn has arrived. 

Geese at Walden Golf Club

6. There were a lot of geese on the golf course yesterday. And they were also flying around honking and generally being a nuisance.  

7. I was saddened at the announcement of the death of Arnold Palmer. 

8. We were invited to dinner at, a really good German restaurant right near us--The Bavarian Brauhaus. I don't know how we missed it all of these years.

9. There is rain in the forecast, finally. We are very dry. I am actually looking forward to seeing my lawn green up a bit before winter arrives.

10. It is hard to believe it, but the MLB regular season will be over by this time next week and it will be the Post-Season.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

My Take: The Debate

The first Presidential Debate between two of the candidates running for the nation's highest elected office is scheduled for tomorrow. I wish the top four candidates had been included; however, it will have to do with just two.

What am I looking for from the debate?

Leadership, integrity, context, details.

I actually can sum up my four wants in four words--but they are big words.

Leadership--one of the candidates needs to be a leader. Not a backbiting slanderer, but a leader who can rise above the muck slinging and take the shots and jabs while not responding in kind to ensure that their voice is heard as a voice of a leader amid the cacophony around them.

Integrity--this one seems to be the toughest. I am already biased that neither candidate has the integrity necessary to be the leader of the free world. Hopefully I will be surprised, but at every turn both sides have shown a propensity for fact twisting and deception.

Context--too many phrases are stolen from context to remake the world into an imaginary image. The candidates need to provide correct context for their remarks and not just make emotionally appealing or repulsive statements. 

Details--the time for the broad generalizations for programs is over. It is time to indicate how the next President will work with the Congress to enact legislation. Presidents do not pass laws and do not fund programs--the Congress does. Both candidates need to provide details of the programs and the plans to have them enacted.

It is crunch time. The polling places in some states are already open for early voting. 

My Take: It is time for this campaign to become about real issues and plans and stop focusing on the peripheral and incidental problems.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Around the Fire Pit

Around the Fire Pit

Nothing screams autumn like sitting around the fire pit in the back yard with our friends on a Friday night at the end of a long week drinking wine.

It is autumn at its best. Before the bone chilling cold sets in and while the leaves are yet green on the trees, although falling at an incredible rate because of the drought-like conditions.

Granted, there was some bug spray involved to preclude becoming dinner for the still viable mosquitos, but the evening was perfect, the conversation stimulating and the wine enjoyable. 

I even tried to get everyone to play a memory game, One Hen, two ducks; also called the Announcer's Test, that I learned in Boy Scout camp a few decades ago--the only problem was that I forgot what came after six. I had to look it up this morning.

A perfect evening. Thanks to my friends who made it that way.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Weather Changes

Leaves on my Pool Cover

The first full day of autumn, today may be the last gasp of summer for the region.

The anticipated high of 86 degrees and the low of 60 are the last of the summer-like temperatures for about the next two weeks.

Beginning tomorrow the highs will top out in the 70's (and some days are forecast to be exactly 70) and the lows will consistently be in the 50's. Autumn's weather is arriving. 

Sunset over Baltimore
September 20, 2016

The leaves are already falling as those adorning on my pool cover attest. The trees are still mostly green, the leaves are falling because of the dry weather.

The sunsets have been glorious. I imaged one during my most recent visit to Camden Yards, which likely will be my last this season since the Orioles have rendered themselves irrelevant in the playoff chase by being swept in a four game series at home. 

The changes are coming almost daily. I would say it is fun to watch, but I'm not very excited about the end result which is winter.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Autumn's Arrival

Today at 10:21 AM EDT is the seasonal end to summer.

It is over.

Those lazy, hazy crazy days are a memory until next June, although we usually herald summer's arrival during May. 

As I looked at the autumn images, I noticed that the characterization of the world seems to change from green to orange and red during autumn. And then the trees go bare.

There is a Washington Post article titled Fall begins Thursday: Five questions and answers about the autumnal equinox that goes into some of the interesting and fun facts about the start of the season.

The increasing darkness has already made its presence known. The table shows the average daily loss of light by latitude (or city). I'm glad that I am not in Alaska! But the days are shortening to the point where trying to get in a round of golf after work is impossible. I'm lucky to get nine holes in, although in reality I haven't been able to get to a course after work for a few months. Losing about 2m 30s of daylight per day means that I won't be playing evening golf again until May.

Yesterday I arrived at work during darkness and soon, I will be going home in darkness.

Another year is heading to a conclusion. I can already feel the cold winds of winter waiting just off stage to make their presence felt.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Staggering to the End

From mlb.com

Last evening Chris and I went to see the Orioles play the division-leading Red Sox. 

It should have been a great game, except that it wasn't. 

The Orioles have dropped three games out of the division race since last week and look listless on the field. Last evening they again could not mount an effective offense and the pitching failed at all of the wrong times. 

I had to suffer through another David Ortiz homer, a three-run shot that put the game out of reach. 

Trey Mancini

I enjoyed seeing the Orioles Trey Mancini hit a homer in his major league debut. His was one of the few bright spots for the team.

The stadium was not full and wild as I would have expected for a match off between division rivals vying for playoff spots. It is as if the listlessness of the team has taken over the fans as well.

How do I define listless? The Orioles have scored two runs in each of their last four games and are 1-3 during that time. 

The hitters are not getting the job done. Case in point--last evening Adam Jones came to the plate in the 7th inning with two on and two out. The Orioles were down 5-2 and had already scored one run during the inning. Instead of working for a single that would score another run, Jones swung for the fence on a 2-0 count and while he gave the ball an exciting ride, it became the third out and crushed the rally.

The season is not over. There are 11 games remaining, but being 5 games out of first is beginning to make winning the division seem out of reach. The Orioles still possess one of the wild card spots and so, hopefully, there will be Orioles post-season baseball this year.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD