Allies don't do that to Allies

 I have been reading to and listening to the president-elect's desires to invade the Panama Canal and Greenland, and annex Canada. 

Are we crazy?

Do we not remember that the U.S. is the cornerstone of NATO and that Article 5 stipulates that an attack on one is an attack on all? That article had been employed only once in history--after 9-11 when our good friends and NATO allies supported the U.S.

What is our president-elect thinking? If he takes Greenland by force, as he has suggested, he would make the U.S. one of the worldwide oppressors and the NATO allies would have to defend Denmark employing Article 5. 

Even a tariff war could be considered an attack--an economic attack. 

And then . . . 

Annexing Canada? Really? We invaded Canada once (War of 1812) and lost. We have no business annexing Canada.

And then there is the Panama Canal. Treaties were written and signed. It is estimated that the U.S. has broken more than 370 Treaties over time. It might be construed that our word is not our bond.

Allies don't do this kind of stuff to allies. 

Invading Greenland would make us the same as Russia in Ukraine and China in the South China Sea. 

I don't think this is the mandate that Trump was given. How is he planning to lower gas and grocery prices? I'm not hearing much about those campaign promises from the guy who said he would keep every promise. 

-- Bob Doan, Odenton, MD

2025, Day 2

 

Newly Opened US-1 Bridge
Jupiter, FL
January 1, 2025
Photo by Carola Frantzen

Apparently craziness is how 2025 will start off.

Terrorist attacks complete with exploding cyber-trucks and security concerns surrounding the College Football Playoffs were in the news as the year began. 

But, in really fantastic news, the US-1 Bridge over the Loxahatchee River in Jupiter, FL, partially reopened. We have been suffering with congested traffic since March 2023 when the existing bridge was closed for demolition and reconstruction. We are excited to have one more lane each way because that increased the number of available lanes to cross the river from 2 to 3 and removed an excruciating detour. Maybe traffic will moderate a bit. I am anxious to drive over the bridge. The completed bridge will have a nice bike lane, and I am looking forward to biking across the bridge. 

A special thanks to Carola for taking the picture of the newly opened bridge while caught in traffic.

-- Bob Doan, Odenton, MD

Worrisome Choices

 One of the biggest concerns that I had about the president-elect was who would he surround himself with as advisors and cabinet leaders. 

I think the answer is coming in fairly clearly: patsies. 

He is not willing to find experts or even people with experience to run important departments such as defense, justice, and the interior. He is selecting, in at least two cases, people with no experience but who will do his bidding. 

Is anyone else concerned about this? 

On top of unqualified appointees, Trump may be planning to subvert the advice and consent of the Senate by trying for recess appointments--there is something just wrong about that, and also skipping security vetting from the FBI. 

About the announcement for DNI, Director of National Intelligence:

As former Illinois representative Joe Walsh wrote: “Donald Trump just picked someone to oversee our intelligence who, herself, couldn’t pass a security clearance check. She couldn’t get security clearance. She couldn’t get a job in our intelligence community. Because she’s too compromised by Russia. Yet Trump picked her to run the whole thing.” (Letters from an American)

What is happening? Trump seems to be knee-capping Defense, Justice, and the Intelligence Community. 

I saw this coming.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Information Warfare

 It seemingly has become a way of life in America. False news and disinformation are everywhere. The recent election demonstrated the effectiveness of the false news agencies in convincing Americans that we, as a country and a society, are bottom barrel and trash. 

If a majority believe it, it must be true--right? Not so. It remains not true, but the following information does demonstrate how disinformation affected the election outcome.

There is data from a Reuters/Ipsos poll in October that shows just how damaging the information gap is. People who are in possession of truthful, accurate information voted overwhelmingly for Harris. In other words, if you believed violent crime in major American cities was at an all-time high—which is not true—you were far more likely to vote Republican. Voters who knew that inflation had declined over the last year and was close to historic averages were +53 Democratic votes. Perhaps most disturbingly, people who did not have truthful information about undocumented people crossing the southern border were more likely to vote Republican.

(Civil Discourse)

If Americans were making decisions based upon disinformation then who won the election? Well, that does not change, but America will change. 

I am a bit frightened because our president-elect has stated that he will fulfill every promise he made. 

We can't afford them. And I thought Republicans were the party of fiscal responsibility?

Figure 1 summarizes Trump’s campaign promises and their corresponding revenue estimates (collected by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

(Forbes)

And so it begins. The sad thing is that the people who elected him will be the ones who may suffer most. BTW, I heard him say something like that in a campaign speech.

Almost every economic policy Trump proposes would, at best, do little for the middle and working classes and, at worst, outright harm them. To take one example, among the random suggestions Trump has made is to make car insurance interest tax deductible. But that would only benefit you if you already itemize your deductions, and only 10% of taxpayers itemize, most of whom are wealthier. The rest of us take the standard deduction, which was significantly increased in that 2017 tax cut Trump wants to extend.  (MSNBC)

Well, the ride into misty future has already begun.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

The Economics of Tariffs

They say the election is about the economy.  

If it is then looking forward, rather than backward, Americans should be concerned about the impact of tariffs on the economy. One specific area of concern relates to Tech products. 

The CTA predicts [PDF] that the increased cost of importation, and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, would raise the cost of a laptop by 46 percent, a gaming console by 40 percent, and smartphone prices would be 26 percent more expensive. As a result, the association expects demand to fall 54, 57, and 44 percent, respectively.

"At their core, these proposals are tools for the US government to grab as much tax revenue as possible from the American people," said CTA CEO Gary Shapiro. "The proposed tariffs will not create more employment or manufacturing in the US. In fact, the opposite may happen where our productivity decreases and jobs may be lost over time when workers and businesses have less affordable access to technology."

The report points out that, for example, in the case of smartphones, there is virtually no manufacturing capability in the US, beyond a few refurbishing companies. (The Register)

Tariffs broadly applied will likely cause a major disaster in the economy. 

And here is a fun fact: 3 of the last 4 presidents faced economies on the brink of recession when they took office. Which president did not? Trump. 

Obama handed Trump a thriving economy for which Trump takes all of the credit. Important note, the inflation rate for Trump's term was 1.9%, but under Obama it was only 1.4%. The inflation rate during Biden's term, so far, has been 5.2%.  (Investopedia)

Trump, it must be remembered, handed Biden an economy on the brink of disaster AND a pandemic which saw, it is estimated, over 600,000 Americans die needlessly due to Trump's negligence.The Biden team pulled off a never before seen soft landing for the economy which was able to lower inflation from a high of 9.1% to just above 2% without spawning a recession. 

How do tariffs raise inflation: 

"The prices of all domestic goods will rise because they won't have foreign competition, at least some service prices will rise too," she said. "So you have the secondary price effect on domestic prices, which we've seen before with the open aluminum tariffs, with tariffs on washing machines, with tariffs on some of the things that were coming from China." (The Register)

Tariff Realities: Trump claims that foreign countries like China pay for the tariffs, and therefore they're subsidizing us. Well, that's wrong. And no, foreign countries are not going to pay for Social Security, childcare, or anything else. In the first round of the Trump tariffs, a lot of the effects were born by the intermediaries--wholesalers, retailers, distributors, et cetera. These intermediaries absorbed some of the cost of tariffs through lower profit markups. They also avoided the tariffs by shifting their sourcing to countries without tariffs. So, the United States didn't really see a big increase in consumer prices. But new tariffs, especially if they're large and they're applied to all imports like Trump suggests, so that firms couldn't escape them, would be much more likely to push up prices for consumers.  (American University)

If Trump gets elected, buy your tech items before he is sworn in, else wait 4 years. Oh yea, and get ready for the recession that Biden's team avoided.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Vote, please

Kayaks on the Loxahatchee
Tequesta, FL
October 26, 2024

 Many of us are burned out with the election and cannot wait until it is over. 

But, we still need to do our part--VOTE. 

This election cycle has been going on, it seems, forever. We are in the home stretch and finally, We the People get to make the decision on our future. 

There have been many sensational revelations during the past few weeks. Yet, many Americans still seem to be clinging to the idea that they were better off four years ago. 

That is bunk!

We were in the middle of the pandemic, which was made worse by the denials of the then president. Stores were empty of critical supplies, the world was grinding down. Because of Trump's head-in-the-sand approach it is estimated that 600,000 Americans died needlessly. 

Oh but, inflation was under control. Right--until it wasn't because of Trump's disastrous decisions. Biden takes the heat for it, just like Trump takes credit for the fantastic economy that Obama presented him with. Trump's job was not to screw it up--and he failed. But like so much in Trump's career he has managed to foist his failure onto others. 

So many are looking backwards hoping for the good old days, but here again Trump is hoping to take credit Biden's success restoring the economy without a recession. The economy is great. Anyone who believes prices are going to go back to 2020 is living in a fantasy land. In fact, the tariffs are going to make prices jump. 

Also, has anyone else noted that Trump is a terrible judge of character? So many people he hired calling them the best ever and great suddenly became terrible people and stupid when they departed from service to Trump. And there are a lot. I'm have not heard of anyone departing service to Harris or Biden that way. 

I believe the difference is clear--

Chaos or Sanity

Retribution or Governing

Looking Behind or Moving Forward

I voted for Harris/Walz -- Because our future depends on it

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I rode 6.76 miles yesterday. The ride was short because I rode into a rainstorm and decided to go home rather than get soaked. I have ridden 326.8 miles and fully met the 300-mile goal.

Programming Note: Monday Musings will not be published tomorrow because Chris and I will be traveling

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

It is Important - VOTE!

 

Apparently voters in Georgia are fully aware of the importance of this election cycle in determining the future of our nation and society. They showed up in droves yesterday to vote--on the first day of early in-person voting in the state. According to CNN reporting, over 328,000 votes were cast in Georgia yesterday breaking the old first day record of 136,000 from 2020. 

I think that response is great. It means people are taking this election seriously. The first day of early voting in Florida is next Monday, the 21st. Chris and I are both planning to be in line to vote on that day. With the swirl surrounding mail-in voting, we want to be sure our votes count. 

So my encouragement is to get out and VOTE! I think the choice is clear. I heard it summarized best yesterday by a voter in Georgia, it is a choice between sanity and insanity. 

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I rode 21.52 miles yesterday. Thus far, I have logged a total of 202.10 miles. I expect to ride today. I have 97.9 miles remaining to reach the 300-mile goal.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

A Concerning Approach

 Chris and I watched the Vice Presidential Debate from start to finish. We at times had side-bar discussions while the candidates were debating, but I believe we saw and heard the whole thing. 

Two things that the Republican, JD Vance, said concern me the most. That, of course is aside from the outright lies and misrepresentations the spewed forth almost every time he spoke. 

First, and most importantly, Vance would not affirm that Trump lost in 2020. That is huge. It continues to demonstrate that the republicans are not willing to accept the fact that the American voters fired Trump! And not just in the Electoral College, but by more than 7 million votes! Thus, they are laying the groundwork to not believe the voters in 2024. While republicans say they are worried about the 2024 election being stolen, my view is that if they are talking about someone else doing it they are already planning to commit the crime. 

But wait, there is more! 

I was outright scared by Vance's assertion that experts and scientists are not to be trusted. That 'common sense" should prevail. I remember that as the pandemic began, Trump's common sense told us that it was no worse than the flu and would go away. He did not trust the experts and in the end over 1 million Americans died. It is impossible to compute how much smaller the toll would have been with immediate action. Yes, I hear the argument that the experts were wrong. 

Someone with true common sense would understand that when working against a problem that has never been seen before, experts and scientists take iterative approach is taken and there may be miscalculations. History shows that once Biden took office; expert advice was followed and the result was that America led the world out of the pandemic and has the strongest post pandemic economy--because of the experts AND because common sense said to follow the experts advice. 

People with true common sense understand they need experts and scientists. True common sense uses all the tools at hand. For instance, science invented the LED light, common sense tells us when to use it. 

I found the following:

Science and common sense differ in their goals, methods, and the types of knowledge they produce: 

• Goals

  Common sense is mainly concerned with immediate action, while science is concerned with understanding the world independently of context and people. 
• Methods

  Science is an empirical field that uses observation and experimentation to develop knowledge. Scientific methodology includes objective observation, measurement, and data. 
• Knowledge

  Common sense is the knowledge that people are expected to know about the world, including properties, relationships, and interactions. Scientific knowledge is precise, well-founded, and systematic. 
• Beliefs

  People can hold incorrect beliefs based on common sense, such as believing that calorie-reducing diets are an effective treatment for obesity. Scientists are skeptical and cultivate an attitude of considering alternatives and searching for evidence. 
• Examples

  Examples of common sense include "You really should go to see a doctor if your leg hurts that much". Examples of scientific concepts include measurement, properties of matter, atoms, waves, genetics, electricity, and energy. 

  (This was an AI generated response)

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Pawns in a Dangerous Game

 

From Reddit

The Republican nominees for president and vice president are lying, hurting people, and doing it intentionally according to their own words.

The situation they have created in Springfield, Ohio, is deplorable. And they see no reason to end the lying. We are faces with the next big lie. The people of Springfield are begin harmed, they are being denied there right to pursue happiness and they are constituents of the VP candidate who admitted to lying to gain press coverage and says it was worth it. Clearly, his view is that the people are pawns for him to achieve power regardless of the damage.

I am reminded of a quote from Germany about 1933. I updated it.  

First they came for the LGBTQ+, and I did not speak out—because I was not a LGBTQ+.

Then they came for the Haitians, and I did not speak out—because I was not Haitian.

Then they came for every immigrant, and I did not speak out—because I was not an immigrant.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

—with respect to Martin Niemöller for the original

Do we really want JD Vance to be one-heartbeat away from having the nuclear codes? Remember, the guy he is nominated to be the vice for is 78 years old and seems to be suffering from PTSD, other potential mental issues along with who knows what physical ailments. 

The following are observations from a Wikipedia article titled Age and Health Concerns about Donald Trump. 

Cognitive decline

Experts for the science publication STAT who analyzed changes in Trump's speeches between 2015 and 2024 noted shorter sentences, more tangents, more repetition and more confusion of words and phrases. The doctors suggested it could just be due to changes in mood or it could indicate the beginning of Alzheimer's.^[39] The sharp rise in all-or-nothing thinking is linked to cognitive decline.^[39]

Family history of dementia

Medical experts have also advised the Washington Post that Trump likely has an elevated genetic risk of dementia.^[6] Nephew Fred Trump III sees signs of the dementia that he saw in Trump's father, Fred Trump Sr.^[40] Fred Trump Sr. was diagnosed with Alzheimer's in October 1991, 8 years before he passed.^[40]

Republicans, and especially Trump, made an issue of Biden's capabilities (real or imagined) which ultimately factored into his decision to withdraw. Perhaps we should be concerned, for real and observable reasons, about Trump's mental abilities.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

The Chaos Returns

 And it begins . . . 

Welcoming Sign to Springfield, Ohio
Fox News
September 14, 2024

I am outraged by those who lied and continue to lie about the situation in Springfield, Ohio. They have ruined lives and have thrust the entire community and especially the LEGAL Haitian immigrants living there into the forefront of a very ugly news cycle. 

The situation in Springfield foreshadows the chaos which will once again grip the country if Trump is elected. And he doesn't care about the lives of the people living there. He does not care about the hard working Haitian immigrants or any of the other citizens of Springfield who are suddenly in the center of yet another great lie.

Two hospitals in Springfield, Ohio, were sent into lockdown after bomb threats, police said Saturday, marking the fourth such case in as many days that appears linked to false claims circulating among the far right that Haitian immigrants there are eating domestic pets and wildlife.

Saturday’s threats came even after the woman who started the rumors acknowledged to NBC News that they were unfounded and publicly apologized.  (The Guardian)

Who does Trump care about? Himself. 

I remember the chaos and public unrest during Trump's presidency. He continually pitted groups of people against others. 

A bit more about the situation in Springfield:

Two elementary schools were evacuated, and a middle school was closed Friday morning in the Ohio city of Springfield − the target of false election-year rumorsabout Haitian migrants − "based on information received from the Springfield Police Division," school officials said.

Springfield, located north of Dayton, vaulted to national prominence after former President Donald Trump announced during Tuesday's presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris that, "In Springfield they are eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're eating the cats. They're eating the pets of the people that live there." (The Columbus Dispatch)

And what has happened since the reports about dogs and cats being eaten? The Republicans have doubled down rather than admitting to the lie. Trump and Vance cannot admit they are wrong in the face of facts, rather they try to bend the facts to fit their lie.

And to make it worse: 

The all-male, far-right Proud Boys have been spotted marching on the streets of Springfield, Ohio. There has been no confirmation on what they planned to do or where they were headed. (AS)

Remember Charlottesville?

I do not want to go back. We must continue to move forward. 

Happy Sunday.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

More of the Facts - The Debate

 I did some fact checking after the debate Tuesday night. Wow! Amazing.

I was amazed that the Republicans are attacking the moderators. According to CNN: 

Trump talked more than Harris throughout the entire debate broadcast, and finished five minutes ahead after closing statements wrapped. At the end, Trump had spoken for approximately 42 minutes and 52 seconds, while Harris spoke for about 37 minutes and 36 seconds. (CNN)

Why would the side that got a nearly 5 minute time advantage, or a 6 percent advantage, complain about the moderators not being fair? From where I saw the debate the moderators were not being fair to Harris by letting Trump interrupt her and not shutting off his microphone as was agreed. 

I am concerned about the amount of misinformation and outright lies that Trump spoke. According to AP News Fact Checking, here are the most egregious lies of the evening:

- Trump shares inflated numbers around migrants and crime 

- Trump repeats false claims that noncitizens are being sought to vote

- Trump misrepresents crime statistics

- Trump endorses false rumor about immigrants eating pets

- National Guard soldiers on Jan. 6

- Trump falsely claims China is building ‘massive’ auto plants in Mexico

- Trump falsely claims evidence shows he won in 2020

- Trump claims Putin endorsed Harris

- Trump misrepresents key facts of the Central Park Five case

- Harris takes Trump’s ‘bloodbath’ comment out of context

Of the lies, the one that is very concerning is the one about immigrants eating pets. Joyce Vance writes about this lie as follows:

It's not just that the Haitian story is ridiculous. It's not just that it’s a lie. It is both of those things, but it is more than that; it is also dangerous. Dehumanizing people is what makes inhuman treatment of them possible. It’s how you justify the family separation policy that ripped children from their parents, some of them so young that reunification is still elusive more than five years later. In extreme cases, dehumanization is a path towards genocide, the way the Nazis called Jews in Germany vermin and claimed that they spread disease and used the blood of non-Jewish children in rituals as prelude to the Holocaust. Trump is using similar language as a prelude to the proposed mass deportations of migrants that both he and Project 2025 (which he claimed last night he’d never read) call for. Trump and Vance are setting up a society where atrocities against other human beings can be justified by dehumanizing them first.(Civil Discourse)

At times, and I watched the entire debate along with the post-debate commentary, it appeared that Trump forgot against whom he was running. He launched into more than one discourse about Biden and Harris reminded him that she was not Biden.

I remember all of the nasty and inappropriate things Trump said about President Biden in the past. Perhaps Trump should look into the mirror and upon realizing these same things are true about himself; that he is unfit to be president, he should quit the campaign and head out onto a golf course in a golf cart and do what he does best--sulk. That would be far better than continuing to tear the country apart through his lies and misrepresentations.  

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Just the Facts

 In all of the political discussions one party seems to create false facts, twist facts, and exaggerate far more than the other. That is not to say that there is not exaggeration on both sides, because we all know there is. 

I ran across the following on Reddit, I have not fact checked it completely, but in my head it seems to be about what I remember, so here goes (with some editing to correct spelling and remove pithy comments) The quoted material is in italics:

Regarding COVID:

While Trump told us 38 times that COVID would go away, U.S. LIFE EXPECTANCY FELL FROM 79 YEARS TO 76 YEARS and 1,000,000 Americans died of COVID and 4,000,000 Americans became disabled. 

Regarding the Economy:

US unemployment rate on Donald Trump's last day in office: 6.3%.

US unemployment rate today: 3.7%, after having hit a 50-year low of 3.4% in February.

Jobs added to US economy during 4 years of the Trump administration: -3 million.

Jobs added to US economy during the 2.5 years of the Biden/Harris administration: 13+ million.

Average annual GDP growth under Donald Trump: 0.95%

Average annual GDP growth under Joe Biden/Harris: 3%+

Most oil produced in a year under Trump: 13.1 million barrels per day.

Most oil produced in a year under Biden/Harris: 15.8 million barrels per day.

Infrastructure bills promised by Trump administration: 1. Delivered: 0.

Infrastructure bills promised by Biden/Harris administration: 1. Delivered: 1.

Felony charges facing Donald Trump: 91

Felony charges facing Joe Biden/Harris: 0

* https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/19/trump-carroll-judge-rape/

*** https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/why-life-expectancy-in-the-us-is-falling-202210202835

** https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4459861-trump-praises-collapse-of-bipartisan-border-deal/

Things were NOT better four years ago. We were trapped in our houses and I remember standing in line to vote and we had to stay 6 feet apart. The lines wrapped around the voting center.  We had to wear masks. Toilet paper could not be found in the stores. 

Wait, and who was president? Trump!

I do not need any more of that. 

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL