Headlong Journey

 

Palm Tree in the Morning Light
Tequesta, Florida
December 31, 2021

Yesterday began as unnumbered days before had begun: I woke up, wrote my blog, went to work and that is where it all changed. When I departed my place of employment for the past decades, I was no longer employed anymore; I had been promoted to a new status: retired.

The good-byes were hard and at times awkward, but sincere. I felt kind of like I did when my family dropped me off at college and we said our good-byes and they drove away. I will miss everyone and the relationships that have developed as we worked together. I do not want to lose touch, but I know that life gets in the way of good intentions too many times.

It was very weird driving away from the facility for the very last time, but I had so much to do to be on an evening flight to my Florida home that it kept me fairly occupied for the afternoon.

Note to self--no more late flights. We were delayed over an hour taking off because of baggage handling. Baltimore remains the worst airport that I traverse for baggage. I cannot fully understand how other airports can get bags off aircraft efficiently, but Baltimore cannot seem to manage the effort. 

It was exciting when the Lyft dropped us off in front of our condo and we walked through the door. I was home, again and beginning a new chapter of my life. 

I think I will go walk on the beach.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

It has Arrived

The last work day of the year has arrived! Tomorrow is a Holiday Observed, because New Year's Day is a Saturday, and is technically not a work day. 

I have been anxiously anticipating today with excitement, but now with some trepidation, as it the day is my last workday as I head off into retirement and away from the daily grind.

Being unemployed, or in my case retired, is a strange and very different concept for me. I have been fortunate to have been actively employed my entire adult life with the exception of Columbus Day weekend 1998. I had left my contractor job the Friday prior and did not start my government job until the Tuesday after the holiday. So I was unemployed for a weekend and a holiday. That is until Saturday, January 1st, when I will be officially retired at the stroke of midnight concurrent with the start of the new year. 

The off ramp, therefore, is in sight and the new highway is just ahead. Today is, hopefully, my last in a series of lasts and tomorrow begins my first in a series of new firsts and adventures.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Sliding through the last Week

Amazingly, Hump Day has arrived for both the last week of the year and the last week of my full-time employment. 

I am so busy getting ready for the end of the year and the beginning of the new year that I almost did not notice that Hump Day had arrived. 

It is amazing that, as my headlong rush towards retirement continues, the days do not seem to be getting longer, but rather each day is racing past so quickly that I barely can keep up. There is so much to do and the world keeps turning with new excitement at every turn. 

I had begun counting down the hours, but gave up because the hours were spinning past too fast. 

The year is coming to a conclusion. The book of 2021 will soon be complete and it will be another in a long series of years that I have enjoyed. I am staring the COVID monster straight in the eye preparing to go on a cruise with parts of my family. Other parts of the family are slogging through the COVID wastelands of Disney trying to enjoy total escapism while keeping a wary eye on infection rates. 

And so the year draws to a close. Hour by hour. 

Hold fast to the memories before they slip away and are too soon gone. 

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Ending as it Began

 The year, is ending the way it began with the news being about COVID. 

It seems that the country continues to blame the government when the citizens are unwilling to do what they are asked to do to stem the infection. It is kinda f like the experts are saying do this--and the uninformed are saying No, we don't want to and then complaining that COVID is running out of control. 

That, friends is a no win situation. Until people do what they are asked to do there is no reason to blame the government for not having a plan. There is a plan--follow it and get vaccinated. 

And the continued stream of misinformation is actually killing people. 

For instance, I came across this insightful article about interpreting death rates.

How do death rates from COVID-19 differ between people who are vaccinated and those who are not?

From the article comes this example:

Why we need to compare the rates of death between vaccinated and unvaccinated

During a pandemic, you might see headlines like “Half of those who died from the virus were vaccinated”.

It would be wrong to draw any conclusions about whether the vaccines are protecting people from the virus based on this headline. The headline is not providing enough information to draw any conclusions.

Let’s think through an example to see this.

Imagine we live in a place with a population of 60 people.





Then we learn that 10 people died. And we learn that 50% of them were vaccinated.





The newspaper may run the headline “Half of those who died from the virus were vaccinated”. But this headline does not tell us anything about whether the vaccine is protecting people or not.

To be able to say anything, we also need to know about those who did not die: how many people in this population were vaccinated? And how many were not vaccinated?

Now we have all the information we need and can calculate the death rates:

• of 10 unvaccinated people, 5 died → the death rate among the unvaccinated is 50%
• of 50 vaccinated people, 5 died → the death rate among the vaccinated is 10%

We therefore see that the death rate among the vaccinated is 5-times lower than among the unvaccinated.

In the example, we invented numbers to make it simple to calculate the death rates. But the same logic applies also in the current COVID-19 pandemic. Comparisons of the absolute numbers, as some headlines do, is making a mistake that’s known in statistics as a ‘base rate fallacy’: it ignores the fact that one group is much larger than the other. It is important to avoid this mistake, especially now, as in more and more countries the number of people who are vaccinated against COVID-19 is much larger than the number of people who are unvaccinated (see our vaccination data). 

This example was illustrating how to think about these statistics in a hypothetical case. Below, you can find the real data for the situation in the COVID-19 pandemic now.

As can be seen, many people misinterpret the data. 

Here is the current chart (as current as I can find) for the United States:

The death rates among unvaccinated is much higher than fully vaccinated and digging further into the data it can be assessed that many of the fully vaccinated deaths have underlying complications, as in the case of Colin Powell.

So--the plan is get vaccinated, if you choose not to get vaccinated don't try to say the government doesn't have a plan. Your exercise of your rights is killing people and maybe yourself. 

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Monday Musings - December 27, 2021

 

1. It is the last Monday of December AND of 2021. There are no Mondays remaining in the year and next Monday will be the first Monday of 2022. 

Wine Bottle Lock Puzzle

2. I received a special wine bottle lock for Christmas and I used it to lock up one of Chris's favorite bottles. She has to unlock it before she can drink it. It is making her crazy!  

3. Family Weekend Sports Report

 NFL

   Ravens (8-7) lose to Bengals (9-6), 21-41

   Steelers (7-7-1) lose to Chiefs (11-4), 36-10

   Cowboys (11-4) defeat Washington (6-9), 56-14

Premier League

   Arsenal (11-2-6) defeats Norwich City (2-4-12), 5-0

4. 60 Minutes ran an interesting article about how climate change affects wine grape growing. One expert suggested that he could trace climate change by how wine regions are changing.

5. This is a week that I am normally on vacation burning up use-or-lose leave, but this year I am saving every hour for a retirement gift to myself.

6. If everything works out, next week's blog will be written from a cabin on a cruise ship docked in the Bahamas. My first Monday as a retired person and I will be out of the country! Let's get the new year started with a trip. I have been waiting almost all year for this to happen.

7. Today in History. December 27, 1932. At the height of the Great Depression, thousands turn out for the opening of Radio City Music Hall, a magnificent Art Deco theater in New York City. Radio City Music Hall was designed as a palace for the people, a place of beauty where ordinary people could see high-quality entertainment. Since its 1932 opening, more than 300 million people have gone to Radio City to enjoy movies, stage shows, concerts and special events.

Radio City Music Hall was the brainchild of the billionaire John D. Rockefeller, Jr., who decided to make the theater the cornerstone of the Rockefeller Complex he was building in a formerly derelict neighborhood in midtown Manhattan. The theater was built in partnership with the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) and designed by Donald Deskey. The result was an Art Deco masterpiece of elegance and grace constructed out of a diverse variety of materials, including aluminum, gold foil, marble, permatex, glass, and cork. Geometric ornamentation is found throughout the theater, as is Deskey’s central theme of the “Progress of Man.” The famous Great Stage, measuring 60 feet wide and 100 feet long, resembles a setting sun. Its sophisticated system of hydraulic-powered elevators allowed spectacular effects in staging, and many of its original mechanisms are still in use today.

Omicron Pushes Daily Covid-19 Cases Higher, Disrupts Holiday Travel - The Wall Street Journal

Early Holiday Shopping Helps Offset Omicron Damper - The Wall Street Journal

Developer of Manhattan Supertall Condo Says It’s ‘Without a Doubt, Safe,’ Countering $125 Million Lawsuit From Condo Board - The Wall Street Journal

Desmond Tutu, Whose Voice Helped Slay Apartheid, Dies at 90 - The New York Times

Pandemic and foul weather complicate travel as people try to head home - The Washington Post

Thousands who ‘followed the rules’ are about to get covid. They shouldn’t be ashamed. - The Washington Post

Fenway Bowl canceled after Virginia withdraws amid coronavirus concerns - The Washington Post

Swiss to allow simple legal gender transition from Jan. 1 - Reuters

Wall Street grapples with return-to-office conundrum as Omicron explodes - Reuters

Be Safe and get Vaccinated!

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

To the Beach and Beyond

 

Image of a Card I Received

While the day has passed, Christmas, the season is not over. I know it seems like we are in the great post-holiday let down, but take heart--the season continues. 

Today is celebrated as Boxing Day in many countries and is also known as St. Stephen's Day (or the Feast of Stephen). And so the celebration of the season continues. At least we know what day Good King Wenceslas went out.

Our family will continue the season by celebrating Christmas 2021, the Redo, on January 16th! Due to the quarantine of multiple family members we will attempt to gather for a big holiday meal and complete gift exchanging on that date.

Until then, I guess I will be another bird on the beach, hopefully. 

I am looking forward to 80 degree temperatures and beaches. I am hopeful of being on a beach to celebrate the New Year.

The season will continue as long as we choose to continue to revel in the joy.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Christmas 2021

Christmas Morning at Home
Elkridge, MD
December 25, 2021

Merry Christmas 2021

What a year! It began with an insurrection and ended with the resurgence of the pandemic in the form of the Omicron Variant. In between there were trials and murders and unrest making it a turbulent world. It can sometimes be hard to find peace amongst all of the upheaval and unrest.

But this morning when I walked downstairs after waking, Chris had the room set like a Norman Rockwell scene. A classic Christmas with the tree alight and a fire in the fireplace.  It was a great start to the morning with a cup of coffee and, well, yes another mimosa. 

I received a surprise gift of an Apple Watch--a retirement gift since I cannot wear it into where I work. But, I only have about 28 hours of actual work time left before I'm retired, officially. Mentally I think I may have checked out last week after my retirement ceremony. 

I pray that each of you are having a good holiday. It can be a very difficult time of the year for a multitude of reasons. Some of my family members are quarantined and we have been working to celebrate the season with each of them. 

May the blessings of the season be with each of you and may you most importantly find peace and hope--because that is the true message of the season: 

There is Hope!

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Christmas Eve 2021

 

Another pandemic Christmas has arrived and just when we thought we had this virus under control, it twists and reminds us that we do not.

I confess, it is easy to get depressed about what we may not be doing and why we may not be seeing as the magical morning arrives, but I think we need to look at the situation through another lens. 

COVID has worked its way into parts of the family, but we are smart enough to change our plans and recognize the potential threat while still maintaining the contact. I think we will be reading The Polar Express tonight via Zoom rather than gathered together around a Christmas tree. 

We have so much to be thankful for and so many plans and expectations. We must be careful not to lose the holiday perseverating about what we are not doing. Sure, there will not be a big extravagant brunch today nor a huge meal and gift exchange tomorrow. And I will miss them. But, I make the best French Toast in the world and I have a lot of bubbly ready for mimosas and so brunch will still be served--just on a smaller scale.

It IS CHRISTMAS!

Merry Christmas--find a reason to be happy and share the spirit, even if your plans have changed.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD

Trash Truck, School Bus, and a Crazy Wednesday

 

It was the Wednesday before Christmas and the ice on my windshield caused me to run the truck for a few minutes before heading out. As it turned out I let the truck idle about one minute too long. 

Driving up the street I encountered a trash truck--stopped in the middle of the street with vehicles on both sides of the street and no way to get past. I had to wait, a bit impatiently I might add because I knew that the school bus was due to slide up the cross street and begin its daily rounds of picking up students. When that happens, it adds about 10 minutes to my commute and I was already borderline later than I wanted to be for the day.

Once the trash truck cleared the street and traffic began to move I saw the school bus--right on time, slide through and block the intersection. 

Normally, I would be fuming and working on giving myself an ulcer or a stroke, but yesterday I took the approach, oh well there is precious little I can do about it and tried too find something interesting to listen to on the radio. 

Maybe I was calmer because it was three days before Christmas, or that my retirement ceremony was the day before and I am in the role of "playing out the string."

Well, it was a good day and I'm glad that I was able to contain the eruption which usually occurs and not let it ruin the day.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD 

The Ceremony

 

The Banner Chris Put Up for Me
Elkridge, MD
December 21, 2021

What an emotional day. 

My official retirement ceremony was conducted yesterday. And for the afternoon we met at a local establishment for the "after party."

My emotions during the ceremony were barely under control. I was honored, humbled, and awed. 

It seems almost as if I just arrived at the organization yesterday, yet I have been fortunate to work for the same group for more than two decades--my second career, but my true calling. Due to COVID, I could not invite everyone that I desired to my actual ceremony and I do not have pictures to share--but, and I have been to many retirement ceremonies and I have been part of conducting more than a few, everyone made mine special and it is a send off that I will not forget and one that I deeply appreciate. 

Left to my own devices, I probably would have just slipped quietly out the door on my last day (which is still to come) without much fanfare. A simple good-bye while forcing the tears back is what I think I would have done--but, yesterday drove home something that I have always known--retirement ceremonies are as much for those who remain behind and for those being honored. And I have to admit, spending time recounting the impact of what our team has done made me proud to have been part of it. Not in terms of activities, but in terms of people and lives and creating a work family.

It was pure coincidence that Winter began one minute before the start of the ceremony. 

And then there was the after party where more of my friends and coworkers (past and present) attended and we talked of old times and the future. I am glad I limited the party to a few hours or I likely would still be there not wanting it to end. 

Thank you to all who helped make the day special.

-- Bob Doan, Elkridge, MD