NFL Conspiracy--The Fix is In?

 I have lost respect for NFL officiating as a result of the Chiefs vs Ravens AFC Championship Game Sunday. 

I question whether the NFL, by assignment of referees,  tried to engineer a Super Bowl match-up between the 49ers, with their West Coast market; and the Chiefs,  who are seeing increased the merchandise sales due to the Kelce-Swift connection? 

Fact: the Ravens lost and left at least 14 points on the field as a result of two ugly second-half end zone turn-overs, I got that, but . . . 

. . . were the odds manipulated before the game was played by the NFL when they assigned Shawn Smith as the referee for the game?

When fans have serious doubts about the fairness of the games based upon statistics and a review of the actual plays it means that perhaps, just perhaps, the NFL needs oversight!

Right out of the gate as the game began, I wondered why the Ravens went away from their season-long game-winning strategy of running the ball. I believe that change may have been a result of the referee assigned to the game who has a documented tendency to call more false starts on the home team than the visitors. False starts, I believe, tend to happen more on running plays because the offensive line is being asked to pull and block and may tend to jump the snap early. 

Sharp Football Analysis provides the following insights about Referee Shawn Smith, assigned to work the Chief-Ravens game:

He ranks #1 out of 24 referees in road team win percentage since 2018.

Home teams have won only 40.8% of games in the last three years with Smith as referee.

Across the NFL in the last three seasons, home teams have covered 49.4% of spreads. Under Smith, home teams are only 17-29-3 against the spread (37.0%) in the last three years.

This is the second-lowest mark among 19 referees.

Leaguewide over the last three seasons, in games Smith did not officiate, the following false start penalties were flagged:

• 843 false start penalties on the home team
• 882 false start penalties on the road team

That’s 4.6% more false start penalties on the road team.

Note: All penalty stats per TruMedia

But in the last three years, Smith has called:

• 62 false starts against home teams
• 46 false starts against road teams

Bucking the average of 4.6% more on the road team, Smith has called 34.8% more false starts on the home teams.

But a couple of penalty types stand out [2023 season]:

• False start: 22 home, 13 road (69% more on the home team) whereas the NFL average this year was 7.6% more on the road team.
• Holding: 17 home, 10 road (70% more on the home team) whereas the NFL average this year was 17.2% more on the home team.

In total this year, Smith called 924 yards in penalties on home teams and 709 penalty yards on road teams.

That’s 215 more yards on home teams or 30% more yards on home teams than road teams.

Across the NFL in games he didn’t officiate, there were 12,113 penalty yards on home teams and 12,636 penalty yards on road teams, or 4.3% more yards on road teams than home teams.

This penalty disparity in favor of the road team for Smith games is part of the reason home teams went a dreadful 3-11-2 against the spread (21.4%) and won just 3 of 16 games he called.

In the playoffs, is it really Shawn Smith’s crew?

This is a big question that is frequently asked about refs and the playoffs.

Sure, these Smith penalty stats and the strong results for road teams are eye opening, but is it really his crew calling the AFC Championship?

I asked our ref expert Joe Gibbs. His response:

Largely, yes. 

They will swap out a couple of officials, but usually, most of the crew is the same crew the head referee worked with during the season. 

These are just a some of the more salient statistics about the referee assigned to the Chiefs-Ravens game there are many more listed in the article I cited. And all of the statistics heavily favor the road team.

The proclivity to favor the road teams beg for an answer from the NFL, why was this referee working a Championship Game?

But wait--it is almost as bad, in reverse, for the referee assigned to the 49ers-Lions game!

The short summary from Sharp Football Analysis reads:

Making things more interesting is the other ref who was assigned to the NFC Championship Game, Clete Blakeman.

Blakeman is the exact opposite of Smith.

Home teams with Blakeman are 31-19 (62.0%) the last three seasons, the #3 highest win rate in that span.

And home teams under Blakeman have covered the spread in 57.1% of games, the #2 highest rate.

So, out of eight possible referees the NFL could have assigned to Championship games this weekend, the NFL selected the most road-friendly ref available (Smith) and put him on the Chiefs’ road game.

The NFL had the most home-friendly ref available but selected him to work the 49ers home game instead.

Was the fix in? Were the Ravens and the Lions afforded impartial and unbiased officiating?

Sporting News called it a "Taylor's Swift Conspiracy Theory."

NJ.com asked if the "Taylor Swift fix is in?"

The Kansas City Star even postulated that the Chiefs may have had the advantage going into the game because of the referee.

And I believe the "fix" goes deeper. Gene Steratore, a former NFL official who provides CBS with expert analysis of questionable officiating calls, is not unbiased. He clearly demonstrated a bias for the NFL and the officiating crews while botching the no pass interference call in the end zone on the Ravens drive. He said the possible interference happened after the interception--a replay clearly shows that the Chiefs neutralized the received before the ball arrived. Steratore remarked:

“There is some contact with the receiver, but in my opinion, I think this contact is occurring after the interception has taken place,” Steratore said on the broadcast. “You see the bump right there, it is a little early, but now you got a play that’s behind the receiver, the ball behind him and that reception taking place. I think it’s a good no-call for pass interference.”  (New England Sports Network)

If there was contact with the receiver, as he says, then where was the illegal holding call--which is a five yard penalty and first down?

I know many will say that I am a grieving Ravens fan--and I am. I own that, but I should not have this many questions about officiating in any football game. As I wrote earlier, the Ravens lost, nothing will change that; but was it fair and square?

The NFL has a serious problem. I suspect they will sweep it away and ignore it? The question remains, with all of the money at stake, who exactly is watching for the fox in the henhouse?

Possibly lost in the noise is that this casts doubt on whether the correct teams are really playing in the Super Bowl, or were they picked in advance because of $$$$?

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

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