Monday Musings - November 4, 2024

 

Election Day is Tomorrow -VOTE

1. Welcome to November and the return of Standard Time. It got dark early last evening. This is the first Monday of November. Hopefully by this time next week we will know who will be President come January. There are 8 Mondays remaining in the year. 

Flawed View of the Hoover Dam
October 30, 2024

2. Don't forget to start your holiday planning. 

3. Family NFL Report. Family teams went 2-2 with the Steelers on a BYE and the Chiefs playing tonight. It is crunch time for the Cowboys who were listless in their loss.

Cowboys (3-5) lost to Falcons (6-3), 21-27

Steelers (6-2) were on a BYE 

Ravens (6-3) soared over Broncos (5-4), 41-10

Commanders (7-2) overcame Giants (2-7), 27-22

Dolphins (2-6) were stampeded by Bills (7-2), 27-30 

Chiefs (7-0) play Buccaneers (4-4) tonight

4. Bus trips have their plusses and minuses. On the plus side, Chris and I were able to visit the Grand Canyon during our short vacation to Las Vegas. On the minus side we spent 10 ours on our backsides riding in a bus to get to the Grand Canyon and back. We also got a short glimpse of Joshua Trees and the Hoover Dam. My view of the Hoover Dam was from the wrong side of the bus and I got an extremely flawed view of the magnificent structure.

5. Today in History. British archaeologist Howard Carter and his workmen discover a step leading to the tomb of King Tutankhamen in the Valley of the Kings in Egypt on November 4, 1922.

When Carter first arrived in Egypt in 1891, most of the ancient Egyptian tombs had been discovered, though the little-known King Tutankhamen, who had died when he was 18, was still unaccounted for. After World War I, Carter began an intensive search for “King Tut’s Tomb,” finally finding steps to the burial room hidden in the debris near the entrance of the nearby tomb of King Ramses VI in the Valley of the Kings. On November 26, 1922, Carter and fellow archaeologist Lord Carnarvon entered the interior chambers of the tomb, finding them miraculously intact. 

A tumultuous campaign is ending with a contrast - CNN

At least 36 dead after overcrowded bus skids into deep gorge in northern India - CNN

Israel's strikes on Iran spark interest in air-launched ballistic missiles - Reuters

Chinese solar firms go where US tariffs don't reach - Reuters

Spain deploys more troops to flood zone where public anger rises - Reuters

Iran Tells Region ‘Strong and Complex’ Attack Coming on Israel - The Wall Street Journal

Kim Jong Un Is Embracing Russia for His Regime’s Survival - The Wall Street Journal

CDC: Pertussis case reports are 5 times higher than at this time last year - The Washington Post

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

The Economics of Tariffs

They say the election is about the economy.  

If it is then looking forward, rather than backward, Americans should be concerned about the impact of tariffs on the economy. One specific area of concern relates to Tech products. 

The CTA predicts [PDF] that the increased cost of importation, and retaliatory tariffs from other countries, would raise the cost of a laptop by 46 percent, a gaming console by 40 percent, and smartphone prices would be 26 percent more expensive. As a result, the association expects demand to fall 54, 57, and 44 percent, respectively.

"At their core, these proposals are tools for the US government to grab as much tax revenue as possible from the American people," said CTA CEO Gary Shapiro. "The proposed tariffs will not create more employment or manufacturing in the US. In fact, the opposite may happen where our productivity decreases and jobs may be lost over time when workers and businesses have less affordable access to technology."

The report points out that, for example, in the case of smartphones, there is virtually no manufacturing capability in the US, beyond a few refurbishing companies. (The Register)

Tariffs broadly applied will likely cause a major disaster in the economy. 

And here is a fun fact: 3 of the last 4 presidents faced economies on the brink of recession when they took office. Which president did not? Trump. 

Obama handed Trump a thriving economy for which Trump takes all of the credit. Important note, the inflation rate for Trump's term was 1.9%, but under Obama it was only 1.4%. The inflation rate during Biden's term, so far, has been 5.2%.  (Investopedia)

Trump, it must be remembered, handed Biden an economy on the brink of disaster AND a pandemic which saw, it is estimated, over 600,000 Americans die needlessly due to Trump's negligence.The Biden team pulled off a never before seen soft landing for the economy which was able to lower inflation from a high of 9.1% to just above 2% without spawning a recession. 

How do tariffs raise inflation: 

"The prices of all domestic goods will rise because they won't have foreign competition, at least some service prices will rise too," she said. "So you have the secondary price effect on domestic prices, which we've seen before with the open aluminum tariffs, with tariffs on washing machines, with tariffs on some of the things that were coming from China." (The Register)

Tariff Realities: Trump claims that foreign countries like China pay for the tariffs, and therefore they're subsidizing us. Well, that's wrong. And no, foreign countries are not going to pay for Social Security, childcare, or anything else. In the first round of the Trump tariffs, a lot of the effects were born by the intermediaries--wholesalers, retailers, distributors, et cetera. These intermediaries absorbed some of the cost of tariffs through lower profit markups. They also avoided the tariffs by shifting their sourcing to countries without tariffs. So, the United States didn't really see a big increase in consumer prices. But new tariffs, especially if they're large and they're applied to all imports like Trump suggests, so that firms couldn't escape them, would be much more likely to push up prices for consumers.  (American University)

If Trump gets elected, buy your tech items before he is sworn in, else wait 4 years. Oh yea, and get ready for the recession that Biden's team avoided.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Reflections of the Grand Canyon, in Slow Time

 I have already written at some length about our less than satisfactory return trip from Las Vegas to Ft Lauderdale, but I want to take some time and write about what we saw and felt during our time at the Grand Canyon. 

Grand Canyon
October 30, 2024

The Grand Canyon is:

Stupendous

Awesome

Magnificent

Grand

It is so grand that it is hard to get a good image of it. I used the panorama function of my cell phone and got some good memories, but even so the images do not do the overwhelming size and magnificence of the canyon justice. 

Mountain Goats
Grand Canyon
October 30, 2024

We saw a couple mountain goats during our all-to-brief time at the Grand Canyon. They were not good subjects as they kept their backsides pointed at us. The image does not show how they were atop an outcropping far above the floor of the canyon.  

The colors of the canyon were stunning and the walk along the Rim Trail provided the opportunity not just to see and enjoy, but to learn as well. There is a geologic history along the trail with samples of the different formations which comprise the geologic history. We were able to touch and see pieces of the Earth dating back over 1 billion years. It was inspiring. 

Grand Canyon from the Rim Trail
October 30, 2024

I guess what impressed me most was the overwhelming size and complexity of the Grand Canyon. I had never imagined it to be so vast. And I know that Chris and I only scratched the surface of the canyon. 

Late October seems like a good time to visit. The crowds were light, but even so at some places it was hard to get to the rail along the trail to take in the fullness of the scene. We hikes about 2.5 miles from Mather Point to the Bright Angel Lodge along the Rim Trail. The tour guide told us it usually takes 1h 30m to do the trail, but because we took our time we used all of our allotted 3 hours to make the trek. 

Someday, I hope to return. There is so much more to see and do, but this was a grand introduction.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

The Worst Trip

Sunrise over Las Vegas on Travel Day
Las Vegas, NV
October 31, 2024

 The Vegas vacation is over. That was a bit sad, but the trip home was one for the record books--in a bad way. The day began with a stunning sunrise--which should have been a warning of the troubles to come. 

I was reminded of the phrase from the Beachboys song, Sloop John B. 

Let me go home

Why don't they let me go home?

This is the worst trip I've ever been on

My first, and hopefully last, trip using Spirit Airlines ran into trouble in Detroit last night where we had to change flights. But before that, the 4-hour flight from Las Vegas to Detroit took off without Wifi. It was definitely a retro flight, but Spirit didn't seem to care that the Wifi didn't work--they just pressed on. The cabin crew also managed a second beverage service just before the Captain started descent into Detroit and we wound up holding our drinks and cups because the tray tables had to be in their upright position. Did I mention that my wine was tainted from being exposed to too much heat? And then came Detroit. 

Detroit is a miserable airport after 8 PM. Why? Because most of the shops and restaurants close at 8 PM. We arrived there about 7:50 PM and found a lounge to which I have access only to find it closed at 8 PM. We then went to Margaritaville to discover that we could get drinks, but not food as they were in the process of closing. 

The Ball
Las Vegas, NV
October 29, 2024

We wandered back to the gate to discover that our 9:25 PM departure had been slipped to 11:40 PM. Ugh. That time subsequently slipped again to 12:02 AM and we finally took off at 12:31 AM. Spirit managed to get us away from the gate just before the new magical 3 hour point where they have to provide compensation. 

Chris and I did find a restaurant/bar that was open until 10 PM. Yay. We sat there for a while before heading over to the gate to wait. And we waited. Our aircraft to Ft Lauderdale arrived at the gate shortly after 11 PM and about 11:30 PM or so we began the boarding process. There were a lot of tired passengers, and gate personnel, by that time, but things proceeded smoothly until it was almost time to close the cabin doors and a couple of men decided they didn't to like their seat and created a stir that I believe delayed departure for about 10 minutes. The aircraft was completely full and so reseating them was a challenge which the crew handled well. Fortunately the men were not confrontational, they were, however, firm in their demand. The ensuing discussion moved to the front of the jet and I am not sure how it was resolved, although some passengers subsequently changed seats. I was trying to get some sleep because I knew I had over an hour drive home upon landing. 

We finally took off and thankfully I slept most of the three hours to Ft Lauderdale. The jet was noisy and there was a passenger behind me who woke me with his snoring. It was loud! But, I got enough sleep that I was not too tired to drive when we landed just after 3 AM. 

Chris and I expeditiously departed the Ft Lauderdale terminal and our car greeted us as we approached it for the uneventful ride home. I do love traveling I-95 in the middle of the night when there is only light traffic. 

We arrived home at about 4:30 AM and after greeting Finn collapsed into bed. Of course I was so keyed up from driving that it took me a long time to give into sleep.

So the moral of this story--direct flights are best. Spirit Airlines has become my airline of last choice. When I originally made the reservation it was for direct flights to and from Vegas on Spirit--but they canceled the direct flights and rebooked me, hence Detroit.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon
October 30,2024

Ok, I admit it. I have been jokingly referring to the Grand Canyon as the Big Ditch for a very long time. My bad. I had seen the canyon from the air, but never experienced it up close and personal. Yesterday, thanks to a five-hour bus trip each way from the Vegas Strip, Chris and I were able to spend three all-to-short hours walking along the Rim Trail. 

The Grand Canyon is a place is a place to which we will likely return to spend more days exploring the magnificence. 

We visited on a perfect day. Well, it was cold as in the 40s. The sun made it warm and enjoyable and we had checked the forecast and were appropriately attired. Chris used her heated vest. It worked great. 

I found it hard to take a picture.  The canyon is so big that it is hard to find something to make the subject of the image. The whole image is the subject. 

— Bob Doan, Las Vegas, NV

Out the Hotel Window - Las Vegas

 

Out the hotel window
Las Vegas, NV
October 29, 2024

I have to admit, the hotel we are staying in is not my favorite, but the view out the window is stunning. Both Chris and I enjoy having the curtains open to see the mountain out past the houses. There is also a golf course in our view. A par 3 hole tees off near us. 

Today we are off to the Grand Canyon. The weather is going to be cold, in the 40s. That should make it a pleasant experience. We are dressed for the cold. It has been cold and windy in Vegas also. I haven’t worn socks this many days in a row in a long time. 

Our fun getaway ends tomorrow with a day of travel. Ugh. But there is adventure ahead today. It is not yet sunrise here as it is just before 6 AM as I write this. The day is still young as the bus charges forward. 

— Bob Doan, somewhere near Boulder City, NV

Arriving Las Vegas

 

Looking towards the Grand Canyon 
October 28, 2024

Chris and I rolled into Las Vegas yesterday while it was still morning after getting up at 3 AM to get to the airport for our flight. We were allowed to check in early at our hotel. Yay. That was great and after a nap we were ready to hit the strip. 

The Venetian

Las Vegas, NV

October 28,2024

We walked down the strip from the Fountain bleu to the Bellagio. Of course it took a few hours and a stop for dinner. We wanted to see the Bellagio fountains, but the shows were canceled due to the high gusty winds. Of course we did not learn that until arriving for the show. Along the way we lost a few dollars in a slot machine just because we could. I was amazed at the architecture of the Venetian and I had forgotten how expansive was Caesar’s Palace. I enjoyed walking through the Flamingo to get to the monorail.

It was a busy first day and we were exhausted upon arriving back at our hotel. We recorded over 8 miles of walking over the course of the day. Wow, no wonder my feet hurt. 

— Bob Doan, Las Vegas, NV

Travel Day Again

 

Out the Window
Somewhere over the Gulf of Mexico
October 28, 2024

And we are traveling again. Chris and I are headed to Vegas and the Grand Canyon. I am flying Spirit airlines for the first time. It isn’t so bad, but I forgot how tight the Airbus A320’s are. I bump my head everywhere. And I’m not tall.

We are looking forward to the short trip. God willing we will be home on Friday.

It should be a good break from watching and reading election news.  Sometimes I wonder what else is happening in the world. 

I enjoyed driving the Mach-e to the airport at 4 AM. There was no traffic and I kept it on hands free driving most of the way. It was fun, but I still don’t trust it.

— Bob Doan, somewhere over the US

Vote, please

Kayaks on the Loxahatchee
Tequesta, FL
October 26, 2024

 Many of us are burned out with the election and cannot wait until it is over. 

But, we still need to do our part--VOTE. 

This election cycle has been going on, it seems, forever. We are in the home stretch and finally, We the People get to make the decision on our future. 

There have been many sensational revelations during the past few weeks. Yet, many Americans still seem to be clinging to the idea that they were better off four years ago. 

That is bunk!

We were in the middle of the pandemic, which was made worse by the denials of the then president. Stores were empty of critical supplies, the world was grinding down. Because of Trump's head-in-the-sand approach it is estimated that 600,000 Americans died needlessly. 

Oh but, inflation was under control. Right--until it wasn't because of Trump's disastrous decisions. Biden takes the heat for it, just like Trump takes credit for the fantastic economy that Obama presented him with. Trump's job was not to screw it up--and he failed. But like so much in Trump's career he has managed to foist his failure onto others. 

So many are looking backwards hoping for the good old days, but here again Trump is hoping to take credit Biden's success restoring the economy without a recession. The economy is great. Anyone who believes prices are going to go back to 2020 is living in a fantasy land. In fact, the tariffs are going to make prices jump. 

Also, has anyone else noted that Trump is a terrible judge of character? So many people he hired calling them the best ever and great suddenly became terrible people and stupid when they departed from service to Trump. And there are a lot. I'm have not heard of anyone departing service to Harris or Biden that way. 

I believe the difference is clear--

Chaos or Sanity

Retribution or Governing

Looking Behind or Moving Forward

I voted for Harris/Walz -- Because our future depends on it

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I rode 6.76 miles yesterday. The ride was short because I rode into a rainstorm and decided to go home rather than get soaked. I have ridden 326.8 miles and fully met the 300-mile goal.

Programming Note: Monday Musings will not be published tomorrow because Chris and I will be traveling

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

From the Ocean

Looking at the Shore
Carlin Park Beach, Jupiter, FL
October 24, 2024

 The other evening, as Chris and I along with friends were celebrating Happy Hour, I had the opportunity to look back at the shore while standing ankle deep in the rough surf. The sun was dipping below the dunes, the trees and one lone palm tree was illuminated. It was a scene to remember. The sandy shore, the palm, and the bright sun. We have not enjoyed a lot of bright sun lately. 

I was happy to capture the image and remember the scene. 

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL