Surviving Milton

 

Sunset before Hurricane Milton
Tequesta, FL
October 9, 2024

Although hurricane Milton has not yet made landfall, we have survived a day of severe thunderstorms and tornados. Chris and I sat on the veranda this afternoon watching the storms pass while drinking wine. We were fortunate as our veranda faces east and the storms were coming from the south. 

The news channels report the worst has passed, WRT the tornados and tonight as Milton makes landfall we will experience tropical storm force winds, but will be spared from the hurricane force winds. 

For the next 18 or so hours we will face Milton's wrath, but we are lucky in that we are not in the direct path of the storm. Chris and I are hearing reports of homes already torn from their foundations, but we remain. 

Thank you to all of you who have wished us well and are praying. I expect tomorrow we will begin cleanup, but we will escape the brunt of the storm. Pray for those in the path of destruction. 

Here is looking for a good night. I have the storm shutters closed in anticipation of a rough night.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Riding in the Rain

Sandhill Cranes under a Tree
Tequesta, FL
October 8, 2024

 I didn't intentionally head out to ride in the rain yesterday, it just happened. I checked the weather radar and the rain was supposed to head out into the ocean, but apparently it changed direction while I was riding. I got wet. Since I was wet and it was not raining too hard, I continued on with my ride until I reached a point where I could head home. 

Once I was wet, I decided to continue. I was riding streets and have all-weather multiple-surface tires on my bike. I needed them for the GAP* ride I did during June. 

Home Goods Prepared for the Hurricane
Tequesta, FL
October 8, 2024

Yesterday I learned where the Sandhill Cranes go during a rainstorm. They go under a tree and that is where I saw them.

Riding after the rains of the past few days presented challenges, mostly standing water on the roadway. There was a lot of water on the roads and sidewalks. In one place the water must have been three inches deep because my shoes got wet when the pedal was at its lowest point. 

Hurricane Milton Update

Hurricane Milton Track with Tropical Storm force wind arrival times
As of 0800 EDT 9 October 2024

Chris and I are prepared. Overnight the track began drifting back to the north, which made me very happy when I checked it out this morning. Many of the businesses are preparing for the storm by boarding the windows. We saw this at Home Goods yesterday. It was a bit eerie seeing the windows boarded like we were living in a war zone--but, we actually are in a weather war zone. I will close my storm shutters later today as the tropical storm winds are expected to arrive overnight and we have trees near the condo. We have only a few larger items to remove from our patio.

Amazingly, the rain maps show very little rain falling during the next two days even though the storm will rage.

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I went on a shorter than desired ride yesterday. I got very wet, but logged 14.36 miles. Thus far, I have logged a total of 124.91 miles. I have 175.09 miles remaining to reach the 300-mile goal. As the winds increase, I may not be able to safely ride, but time will tell. The tropical storm winds are not due until overnight. 

* GAP - Great Allegheny Passage, about 160 miles from Pittsburgh, PA, to Cumberland, MD

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Hurricane Alley--Tropical Storm Warning

 

Forecast Track and Cone, 8 October 2024 at 0700
Hurricane Melton

Chris and I are preparing for the storm. The good news remains that Tequesta remains outside the cone for the storm track, the bad news is that overnight the storm began to track more southerly and is not including Port St. Lucie, which is about 30 miles away and was outside the cone yesterday. 

This is a big event. We have laid in water and foods which require no cooking--like sandwiches, in case we lost power for an extended period of time. The forecast remains that we will see only tropical storm winds and will not face hurricane force winds here. We are under a Tropical Storm Warning. I had a boat reserved for tomorrow; I canceled it. 

But, hurricanes are fickle. I am concerned that the storm is tracking more south. It is also slowing--not a good sign. 

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I managed to get out for a short ride yesterday. I had hoped to get 15 miles or more in, but only made 13.10 before the rain caught up with me. I got wet. Thus far, I have logged a total of 110.55 miles. I have 189.45 miles remaining to reach the 300-mile goal. 

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Monday Musings - October 7, 2024

 

1. It has taken a full seven days, but the first Monday of October has arrived. Whew. There are just 12 Mondays remaining in the year. 

2. Family NFL Report. Family teams went 4-1 with Chiefs to play tonight. The Ravens snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in a thrilling but frustrating overtime period.   

Cowboys (3-2) last minute come from behind to defeat  Steelers (3-2), 20-17  

Ravens (3-2) snatched victory from Bengals (1-4), 34-13

Commanders (4-1) dominate Browns (1-4), 42-14

Dolphins (2-3) swim past Patriots (1-4), 15-10

Chiefs (4-0) face Saints (2-2), tonight  

Hurricane Melton Track
As of 7 AM September 7, 2024

3. We continue to keep a close eye on Hurricane Melton. The track has remained relatively steady. We are just on the edge of the cone. We expect tropical storm level winds to arrive during the Wednesday morning hours. The rainfall total was reduced to 4-6 inches overnight and that is down from 6-8 inches. 

4. Words matter. Trump and Vance are potentially facing charges in Springfield, Ohio, for their false statements about the Haitian immigrants there. The Associated Press reports: Trump and Vance, a U.S. senator from Ohio, are charged with disrupting public services, making false alarms, telecommunications harassment, aggravated menacing and complicity. The filing asks the Clark County Municipal Court to affirm that there is probable cause and issue arrest warrants against Trump and Vance.

5. Words really matter and can impede needed assistance. This morning [yesterday, Sunday October 6] began with a CNN headline story by fact checker Daniel Dale, titled “Six days of Trump lies about the Hurricane Helene response.” Dale noted that Republican nominee for president Donald Trump has been one of the chief sources of the disinformation that has badly hampered recovery efforts. (Letters from an American)

6. Today in History. On October 7, 2001, a U.S.-led coalition begins attacks on Taliban-controlled Afghanistan with an intense bombing campaign by American and British forces. Logistical support was provided by other nations including France, Germany, Australia and Canada and, later, troops were provided by the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance rebels. The invasion of Afghanistan was the opening salvo in the United States “war on terror” and a response to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, D.C. The conflict in Afghanistan would span two decades and become the longest war in U.S. history. 

Dubbed “Operation Enduring Freedom” in U.S. military parlance, the invasion of Afghanistan was intended to target terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda organization, which was based in the country, as well as the extreme fundamentalist Taliban government that had ruled most of the country since 1996 and supported and protected al-Qaeda. 

Ignore the misinformation on social media. The VP’s proposal would only affect those whose net worth is more than $100 million - CNN

Hezbollah rocket attack hurts at least 5 people in northern Israeli city of Haifa, hospital says - CNN

Fact check Trump’s six days of lies about Hurricane Helene response debunked - CNN

Israel bombs Lebanon, Gaza ahead of one-year anniversary of Oct. 7 attacks -Reuters

Gazans wonder how to deal with tons of rubble - Reuters

Ukraine's Zelenskiy to present 'victory plan' at Ramstein meeting - Reuters

Putin’s ‘Merchant of Death’ Is Back in the Arms Business. This Time Selling to the Houthis - The Wall Street Journal

How Alabama Got Rolled in the Biggest Upset in SEC Football History - The Wall Street Journal

Ghost guns, transgender care on Supreme Court agenda as election looms - The Washington Post

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

Due to constant rain yesterday, I did not log any miles towards my goal for the month. Thus far, I have logged a total of 97.45 miles. I have 202.55 miles remaining to reach the 300-mile goal. With the hurricane settling into the area, riding may be tough until Friday.

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL 

Tropical Storm Milton

 Apparently our days of being mostly missed by hurricanes is about to end. 

Tropical Storm Milton, currently in the western Gulf of Mexico, is expected to slam into Western Florida and cruise through north central Florida before exiting into the Atlantic. Ugh. We are anticipating torrential rains and possibly tropical storm force winds. 

Chris and I are keeping a close watch on the forecasts, which seem to indicate a glancing blow right now, but as we all are aware, hurricanes often have a mind of their own! 

I have annotated our location to provide context. These are from about 4 AM this morning and show what I am following in terms of track, rain, and wind. 

It appears we will receive between 6-8 inches of rain, and the winds will remain below about 55 mph. Tuesday night through Friday morning seems to be when the worst of it will be upon us. I hope the storm holds to the northern track they have forecast. I saw one projection where two of the approximate 10 models slid south over us.

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I completed my fifth ride yesterday. I cycled 16.51 miles with Chris around Tequesta and have logged a total of 97.45 miles. I have 202.55 miles remaining to reach the 300 mile goal. With the hurricane settling into the area, riding may be tough until Friday. I will look for a break in the rains to get out. I did do some PM on my bike yesterday so it is fully ready to tackle the remaining miles. 

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Riding in the Face of the Storm

Storm Clouds Gathering
Tequesta, FL 
October 4, 2024

 With ominous storm clouds gathering in the distance, I managed an 18-mile plus ride yesterday. It was actually sunny and bright for most of my ride with only occasional clouds. The storms stayed away and I completed my ride without getting wet from rain, I was, however, very hot and wet from sweat. 

Skeleton and Witch
Tequesta, FL
October 3, 2024

Overall, however, it was a good ride. Halloween decorations are beginning to adorn the yards and some are very creative. There is one of a witch on her broom along with an oversized skeleton that has fascinated me. I have taken three images of it over two days trying to get a good one. I know I should just stop and take the image, but it is more challenging to try and take it while moving on my bike. Fortunately, this is a vert low traffic area near a cul-de-sac. The witch is one of the best representations that I have seen.

There is another decoration which I also enjoy. It is a huge inflatable pumpkin with a small sign near identifying it as the "Big Pumpkin."

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I completed my fourth ride yesterday. I cycled 18.44 miles and have logged a total of 80.94 miles. I have 219.06 miles remaining to reach the 300 mile goal. Today may be a washout. Storms are settling into the area--but I will try to find a break in the action to get a few miles logged. If I can't get out I will use the time to do some PM on my bike. 

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

Gilbert's Bar House of Refuge

Tower
Gilbert's Bar House of Refuge
Stuart, FL
October 3, 2024

Chris and I visited the Gilbert's Bar House of Refuge yesterday. No, it is not a bar in the sense of adult beverages. It is located onshore near a sandbar called Gilbert's Bar.

We learned the history of the U.S. Life-Saving Service, which eventually was rolled into what is now the U.S. Coast Guard during 1915, becoming U.S. Coast guard Station #207. 

It turns out that during the mid-late 1800's and into the early 1900's, Florida was mostly inhospitable. It was also treacherous for merchant ships. Many ships were lost on the bars and shoals along the coast. A series of refuge houses were established to guide survivors to places where they would receive care and shelter. Interestingly, there were actually signs posted on the beaches directing the survivors to the houses. 

The Rocky Coast
Gilbert's Bar House of Refuge
Stuart, FL
October 3, 2024

The Gilbert's Bar house was close to the site of more than a few wrecks. The stories of those saved and their vessels is very interesting. There are many artifacts from the period and a few of the wrecks. The wreck of the Georges Valentine just 100 yards offshore that Chris and I may snorkel on a good day when the ocean is calm. 

We enjoyed the visit and the history, especially the stationing of U.S. Navy personnel at the site during WWII to help combat the German submarines patrolling off the coast and sinking merchant shipping. 

Cancer Society 300-mile Challenge Update:

I completed my third ride yesterday. I cycled 18.72 miles and have logged 62.5 miles for the month. I have 237.5 remaining to reach my 300 mile goal. Next week looks to be a tough weather week for riding as we are expecting tropical rains all week. Finn has an appointment this morning and I may not be able to get a ride in before the rains.  

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

A Concerning Approach

 Chris and I watched the Vice Presidential Debate from start to finish. We at times had side-bar discussions while the candidates were debating, but I believe we saw and heard the whole thing. 

Two things that the Republican, JD Vance, said concern me the most. That, of course is aside from the outright lies and misrepresentations the spewed forth almost every time he spoke. 

First, and most importantly, Vance would not affirm that Trump lost in 2020. That is huge. It continues to demonstrate that the republicans are not willing to accept the fact that the American voters fired Trump! And not just in the Electoral College, but by more than 7 million votes! Thus, they are laying the groundwork to not believe the voters in 2024. While republicans say they are worried about the 2024 election being stolen, my view is that if they are talking about someone else doing it they are already planning to commit the crime. 

But wait, there is more! 

I was outright scared by Vance's assertion that experts and scientists are not to be trusted. That 'common sense" should prevail. I remember that as the pandemic began, Trump's common sense told us that it was no worse than the flu and would go away. He did not trust the experts and in the end over 1 million Americans died. It is impossible to compute how much smaller the toll would have been with immediate action. Yes, I hear the argument that the experts were wrong. 

Someone with true common sense would understand that when working against a problem that has never been seen before, experts and scientists take iterative approach is taken and there may be miscalculations. History shows that once Biden took office; expert advice was followed and the result was that America led the world out of the pandemic and has the strongest post pandemic economy--because of the experts AND because common sense said to follow the experts advice. 

People with true common sense understand they need experts and scientists. True common sense uses all the tools at hand. For instance, science invented the LED light, common sense tells us when to use it. 

I found the following:

Science and common sense differ in their goals, methods, and the types of knowledge they produce: 

• Goals

  Common sense is mainly concerned with immediate action, while science is concerned with understanding the world independently of context and people. 
• Methods

  Science is an empirical field that uses observation and experimentation to develop knowledge. Scientific methodology includes objective observation, measurement, and data. 
• Knowledge

  Common sense is the knowledge that people are expected to know about the world, including properties, relationships, and interactions. Scientific knowledge is precise, well-founded, and systematic. 
• Beliefs

  People can hold incorrect beliefs based on common sense, such as believing that calorie-reducing diets are an effective treatment for obesity. Scientists are skeptical and cultivate an attitude of considering alternatives and searching for evidence. 
• Examples

  Examples of common sense include "You really should go to see a doctor if your leg hurts that much". Examples of scientific concepts include measurement, properties of matter, atoms, waves, genetics, electricity, and energy. 

  (This was an AI generated response)

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

First Ride of the Month

 Yesterday I headed out for my first ride in an attempt to ride over 300 miles this month for the American Cancer Society. I had intended an 18-mile or so ride, but I rode with a friend and I rode the 2.3 miles each way to and from his house. We rode a nice 20-mile ride. So, as a result, I started the month strong with a 25 mile ride. 

Along the Loxahatchee 
Tequesta, FL
October 1, 2024

It was a nice ride through most of the places I traverse on a regular basis. It was a nice day for riding and I stopped along the Loxahatchee River in a small community and took an image of the flat water and idyllic day. I admit, the image did not come out quite the way I envisioned it. The neighborhood is very quiet and I enjoy riding along the river.

Along the way we saw three tortoises, which may seem boring, but seeing a tortoise is something by which we gauge our rides. We always ask each other, how many tortoises did you see? I never see as many as he does. He pointed out a couple tortoise holes that I was unaware of and that may improve my ride counts. 

Well, only 275 more miles this month. I'm planning a 17 or so mile ride today. 

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL

October Arrived -- Biking Goal

 

October arrived overnight. 

Happy Fiscal New Year and Congress actually took steps to keep the government open! Yay! Well, at least until right before Christmas. I wonder if the Lame Duck Congress will be able to prevent a shutdown for Christmas?

The big news this morning, with the arrival of October, is that I will be riding 300 miles for the American Cancer Society!

Sandhill Cranes in the Drive
Tequesta, FL
September 30, 2024

Chris and I biked an easy 14.5 miles yesterday and enjoyed the morning and the day. We saw some Sandhill Cranes in a year along our route. I finished September with just over 143 miles in 9 rides. That is pretty well on track with what I have to do in October by just doubling the number of rides. We were gone or entertained visitors for 13 days during the month which reduced the number of days available to ride.

Thanks you to all of my sponsors. There remains time to become a sponsor. Just click the link below to become a sponsor. 

I want to sponsor Bob. 

Enjoy the day. I'm heading out on my first ride of the month in a few minutes!

-- Bob Doan, Tequesta, FL